tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:49 am at Phoenix)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35% (calm day: 25%). Best bet: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 12:45, 43% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2844 American Flight history → PHX 16:09 JAX 23:15 42% 11% 0.6% 74%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 12:45 → BNA 18:00WN 3237 2h 50m Nashville BNA 20:50 → JAX 23:29WN 4631 7h 44m 98% 67%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 2h 57m Houston IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293 8h 00m 96% 65%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:52 → MIA 20:28AA 1983 2h 25m Miami MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 +1AA 416 8h 23m 94% 64%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 13:35 → STL 18:30WN 4801 1h 25m St Louis STL 19:55 → JAX 23:02WN 4973 6h 27m 90% 63%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 1h 21m Chicago ORD 19:29 → JAX 23:05AA 2096 7h 50m 81% 59%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → CLT 19:29AA 2923 3h 04m Charlotte CLT 22:33 → JAX 23:55AA 1302 8h 40m 100% 57%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:16 → JAX 23:41AA 2506 8h 22m 97% 55%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276 7h 54m 95% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → PHX 13:44 → JFK 20:50B6 136 52m New York JFK 21:42 → JAX 00:31 +1B6 1677 7h 47m 54% 30%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:45 → JAX 21:16AA 2449 5h 57m 55% 29%
AmericanDetails → PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:03 → JAX 22:28AA 2197 5h 53m 53% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON