tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:38 am at Phoenix)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 4329 at 15:50, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4329 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 15:50 LIT 20:47 26% 4% 0.2% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Little Rock on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Little Rock is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PHX 13:35 → DFW 18:12AA 1079 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:04 → LIT 23:23AA 3362 · flown by Envoy 7h 48m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:15 → DFW 19:53AA 2113 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:31 → LIT 23:51AA 3750 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:38 → LIT 21:01AA 3881 · flown by Envoy 6h 42m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:05 → LIT 23:41DL 2083 8h 26m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 1h 51m Chicago ORD 19:59 → LIT 21:59AA 3561 · flown by Envoy 7h 44m 91% 74%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 15:20 → BNA 20:40WN 4600 2h 06m Nashville BNA 22:46 → LIT 00:10 +1WN 603 6h 50m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 14:50 → DAL 19:15WN 1937 2h 27m Dallas DAL 21:42 → LIT 23:02WN 172 6h 12m 100% 72%
AmericanDetails → PHX 14:03 → CLT 21:18AA 1211 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 22:46 → LIT 23:56AA 3444 · flown by Envoy 7h 53m 85% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 17:02 → DFW 21:24AA 2210 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:31 → LIT 23:51AA 3750 · flown by Envoy 4h 49m 63% 51%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:48 → ORD 20:30UA 1686 56m Chicago ORD 21:26 → LIT 23:18UA 4542 · flown by GoJet 6h 30m 67% 50%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 11:05 → LAS 12:15WN 2328 55m Las Vegas LAS 13:10 → LIT 18:20WN 586 5h 15m 68% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON