tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:54 am at Phoenix)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 25–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3923 American flown by Envoy Flight history → PHX 18:52 MEM 23:59 25% 6% 0.7% 71%
WN 3047 Southwest PHX 12:35 MEM 17:38 28% 7% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PHX 06:15 → DEN 09:00WN 1706 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:30 → MEM 13:55WN 4698 5h 40m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 2h 06m Denver DEN 10:58 → MEM 14:25UA 2789 6h 25m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHX 07:00 → ORD 12:51AA 2765 2h 49m Chicago ORD 15:40 → MEM 17:36AA 4647 · flown by Republic 8h 36m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → PHX 10:55 → DTW 17:43DL 1070 2h 22m Detroit DTW 20:05 → MEM 21:01DL 1230 8h 06m 95% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 08:30 → IAH 13:06UA 2812 3h 18m Houston IAH 16:24 → MEM 18:12UA 6158 · flown by Mesa 7h 42m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:14 → ORD 11:00AA 3008 1h 15m Chicago ORD 12:15 → MEM 14:04AA 3675 · flown by Envoy 6h 50m 92% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655 2h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:28 → MEM 14:04AA 3888 · flown by Envoy 6h 54m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:45 → SLC 12:21DL 1447 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 13:40 → MEM 17:40DL 2515 5h 55m 93% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:48 → ORD 20:30UA 1686 50m Chicago ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317 6h 33m 63% 48%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:19 → DFW 16:55AA 1648 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:46 → MEM 19:26AA 3932 · flown by Envoy 5h 07m 67% 45%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 15:25 → DEN 18:10WN 3265 55m Denver DEN 19:05 → MEM 22:30WN 2225 5h 05m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON