Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 158 at 10:55 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 158 PHX 10:55 → MSY 16:03 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2191 PHX 12:30 → MSY 17:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 158 Southwest	PHX 10:55	MSY 16:03	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3227 American	PHX 12:24	MSY 17:37	34%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:55	MSY 17:55	35%	6%	0.7%	45%
AA 2191 American Flight history →	PHX 12:30	MSY 17:34	35%	8%	0.9%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON