Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3461 at 10:51, 28%.

Safest bet today WN 3461 PHX 10:51 → OKC 14:28 · 28% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4087 PHX 19:35 → OKC 23:50 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3461 Southwest	PHX 10:51	OKC 14:28	28%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 3309 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:00	OKC 15:10	29%	4%	0.1%	88%worse than usual
AA 6483 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	OKC 17:54	33%	11%	0.2%	77%
AA 6276 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:16	OKC 17:35	33%	11%	0.2%	80%worse than usual
WN 3441 Southwest	PHX 15:50	OKC 20:07	43%	8%	0.1%	no record
OO 238 SkyWest	PHX 18:57	OKC 23:14	46%	16%	0.4%	no record
AA 6320 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 18:56	OKC 23:15	47%	16%	0.4%	71%worse than usual
WN 3442 Southwest	PHX 19:35	OKC 23:51	55%	11%	0.2%	no record
WN 4087 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:35	OKC 23:50	56%	11%	0.2%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON