Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3245 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 3245 PHX 07:45 → OMA 12:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2227 PHX 13:05 → OMA 17:42 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3245 Southwest	PHX 07:45	OMA 12:26	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4470 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:15	OMA 11:40	9%	2%	0.5%	86%
MQ 3830 Envoy	PHX 08:55	OMA 13:49	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3129 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	OMA 16:45	24%	5%	0.5%	74%
WN 456 Southwest	PHX 11:51	OMA 16:32	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3311 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:25	OMA 01:55	25%	6%	0.5%	45%
AA 6420 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:14	OMA 23:58	30%	13%	0.7%	50%
AA 2227 American Flight history →	PHX 13:05	OMA 17:42	33%	11%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON