Today: AA 2301 at 23:05 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–25%.

Safest bet today AA 2301 PHX 23:05 → PHL 06:43 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2721 PHX 13:07 → PHL 20:43 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2301 American Flight history →	PHX 23:05	PHL 06:43	13%	6%	2.6%	93%
AA 2585 American Flight history →	PHX 23:05	PHL 06:39	14%	5%	2.3%	87%
AA 357 American	PHX 15:49	PHL 23:26	21%	10%	0.4%	no record
AA 1188 American Flight history →	PHX 22:02	PHL 05:35	21%	7%	0.4%	73%
AA 3163 American Flight history →	PHX 16:15	PHL 23:56	22%	9%	0.4%	70%
AA 1803 American Flight history →	PHX 12:53	PHL 20:39	24%	9%	0.4%	54%
AA 2721 American Flight history →	PHX 13:07	PHL 20:43	25%	9%	0.4%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	PHX 14:00 → IAD 21:11UA 1017	59m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic	6h 20m	78%	65%
Southwest Details →	PHX 13:35 → STL 18:30WN 4801	1h 20m St Louis	STL 19:50 → PHL 23:19WN 4401	6h 44m	90%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON