Today: WN 4081 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–37%.

Safest bet today WN 4081 PHX 07:55 → SAT 12:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 450 PHX 18:49 → SAT 23:06 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4081 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:55	SAT 12:05	11%	2%	0.1%	96%
WN 3464 Southwest	PHX 08:55	SAT 13:14	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 3229 American	PHX 09:56	SAT 14:25	21%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 3832 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 19:38	SAT 23:58	21%	6%	0.7%	80%
WN 900 Southwest	PHX 21:15	SAT 01:33	24%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2109 Southwest	PHX 15:15	SAT 19:33	26%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 570 American Flight history →	PHX 12:29	SAT 16:48	26%	8%	0.1%	75%
WN 2986 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 11:00	SAT 15:10	28%	3%	0.1%	73%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	PHX 12:30	SAT 16:42	28%	9%	0.1%	75%
WN 3328 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 21:05	SAT 01:20	30%	7%	0.5%	48%
WN 2254 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 16:25	SAT 20:35	33%	8%	0.5%	38%
WN 856 Southwest	PHX 12:55	SAT 17:13	35%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 450 American Flight history →	PHX 18:49	SAT 23:06	37%	10%	0.8%	78%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON