tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:44 am at Phoenix)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 30–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3329 Southwest Flight history → PHX 13:05 SDF 19:30 30% 4% 0.1% 83%worse than usual
WN 4282 Southwest PHX 16:50 SDF 23:18 36% 5% 0.1% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:14 → ORD 18:48UA 1842 2h 37m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 7h 45m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 23:02 → SDF 00:26 +1DL 2624 8h 11m 95% 75%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → ORD 18:08AA 338 1h 21m Chicago ORD 19:29 → SDF 22:04AA 4603 · flown by Republic 6h 49m 81% 73%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 12:45 → BNA 18:00WN 3237 2h 29m Nashville BNA 20:29 → SDF 22:34WN 719 6h 49m 97% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:26 → DEN 16:18UA 709 1h 50m Denver DEN 18:08 → SDF 22:59UA 2027 6h 33m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373 1h 35m Houston IAH 18:38 → SDF 22:02UA 4052 · flown by Mesa 6h 42m 90% 66%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:31 → DEN 16:27UA 1615 1h 18m Denver DEN 17:45 → SDF 22:28UA 514 5h 57m 83% 62%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → CLT 19:29AA 2923 3h 09m Charlotte CLT 22:38 → SDF 00:02 +1AA 1919 8h 47m 100% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:48 → ORD 20:30UA 1686 55m Chicago ORD 21:25 → SDF 23:59UA 3659 · flown by Republic 6h 11m 66% 61%
AmericanDetails → PHX 12:15 → CLT 19:29AA 2923 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 20:45 → SDF 22:16AA 671 7h 01m 74% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON