Today: AA 2772 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–37%.

Safest bet today AA 2772 PHX 08:44 → TPA 15:59 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 1690 PHX 17:45 → TPA 00:49 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2772 American Flight history →	PHX 08:44	TPA 15:59	18%	6%	0.4%	81%
WN 2678 Southwest	PHX 09:25	TPA 16:30	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 1025 American	PHX 09:02	TPA 16:22	21%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 3260 American	PHX 22:02	TPA 05:10	24%	8%	0.8%	no record
AA 1837 American Flight history →	PHX 15:29	TPA 22:35	31%	9%	0.4%	64%
AA 553 American Flight history →	PHX 16:22	TPA 23:31	33%	8%	0.4%	76%
WN 1690 Southwest	PHX 17:45	TPA 00:49	37%	9%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	PHX 11:00 → SAT 15:10WN 2986	1h 15m San Antonio	SAT 16:25 → TPA 20:00WN 4980	6h 00m	94%	68%
American Details →	PHX 07:30 → DFW 12:06AA 1139	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:55 → TPA 16:36AA 1957	6h 06m	78%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON