Today: WN 3500 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet today WN 3500 PIT 06:20 → BNA 07:04 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3363 PIT 21:15 → BNA 21:50 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3500 Southwest	PIT 06:20	BNA 07:04	2%	1%	0.1%	no record
WN 1935 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 06:30	BNA 07:05	3%	1%	0.1%	89%
WN 2666 Southwest	PIT 12:25	BNA 13:09	16%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 2847 Southwest	PIT 20:55	BNA 21:39	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3362 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 13:45	BNA 14:20	17%	3%	0.1%	68%
WN 3363 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 21:15	BNA 21:50	18%	4%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON