Today: AA 4757 at 10:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26%.

Safest bet today AA 4757 PIT 10:36 → DCA 12:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest OH 5095 PIT 18:50 → DCA 20:09 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4757 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:36	DCA 12:01	9%	4%	0.1%	69%
YX 4470 Republic	PIT 14:47	DCA 16:15	12%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 5323 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PIT 09:24	DCA 10:42	13%	8%	0.6%	85%
AA 1473 American Flight history →	PIT 17:44	DCA 18:59	26%	11%	0.2%	48%
OH 5095 PSA	PIT 18:50	DCA 20:09	26%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON