Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3673 at 07:25, 4%.

Safest bet that day UA 3673 PIT 07:25 → EWR 08:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 3565 PIT 19:30 → EWR 21:12 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3673 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:25	EWR 08:58	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 3513 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:36	EWR 09:18	4%	2%	0.6%	99%
YX 3486 Republic	PIT 06:29	EWR 08:03	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3560 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:12	EWR 10:43	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
YX 3434 Republic	PIT 16:22	EWR 18:20	36%	6%	0.9%	no record
YX 3587 Republic	PIT 19:26	EWR 21:21	37%	6%	1.0%	no record
YX 3559 Republic	PIT 18:06	EWR 20:06	38%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 3578 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:20	EWR 20:02	44%	6%	0.9%	69%worse than usual
UA 3565 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 19:30	EWR 21:12	45%	6%	1.0%	68%worse than usual
UA 4457 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 15:13	EWR 17:00	14%	11%	12.5%	86%
UA 4403 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 11:26	EWR 12:58	19%	10%	4.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON