Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4587 PIT 06:07 → JFK 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest YX 5775 PIT 12:09 → JFK 13:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4587 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:07	JFK 07:43	5%	2%	0.4%	93%
DL 5677 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 07:20	JFK 09:00	6%	2%	0.4%	90%
YX 5788 Republic	PIT 07:19	JFK 08:55	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
B6 1198 JetBlue Flight history →	PIT 06:25	JFK 07:57	11%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 5823 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 11:58	JFK 13:40	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 4568 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 12:13	JFK 13:55	14%	3%	0.7%	86%
YX 5775 Republic	PIT 12:09	JFK 13:44	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 5085 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PIT 17:04	JFK 18:55	48%	34%	12.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON