Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 19%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3374 at 05:10, 4%.

Safest bet that day WN 3374 PIT 05:10 → MCO 07:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 3439 PIT 16:45 → MCO 19:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Weather 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3374 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 05:10	MCO 07:30	4%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 3513 Southwest	PIT 05:25	MCO 07:50	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4726 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 08:00	MCO 10:15	7%	2%	0.7%	94%
WN 3514 Southwest	PIT 09:05	MCO 11:30	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3375 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 10:00	MCO 12:20	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 3458 Southwest	PIT 10:45	MCO 13:09	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3377 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 21:55	MCO 00:20	24%	13%	1.2%	81%
F9 3819 Frontier Flight history →	PIT 14:29	MCO 17:00	35%	25%	2.1%	75%
WN 3516 Southwest	PIT 16:21	MCO 18:43	37%	17%	1.3%	no record
WN 3376 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 18:55	MCO 21:15	37%	18%	1.2%	67%
WN 3439 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 16:45	MCO 19:05	37%	19%	1.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON