Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4531 PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 4493 PIT 17:00 → RDU 18:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4531 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:00	RDU 09:26	5%	2%	0.2%	93%
YX 4742 Republic	PIT 16:27	RDU 18:02	10%	3%	0.2%	no record
AA 4493 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 17:00	RDU 18:30	11%	3%	0.2%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON