Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:39 pm at Pittsburgh); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:10, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Nonstops today


UA 436 United Flight history →	PIT 17:23	SFO 19:51	28%	9%	0.2%	47%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 18:01 → ORD 18:44UA 602	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106	9h 31m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188	3h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091	9h 12m	100%	78%
United Details →	PIT 16:10 → ORD 16:59UA 3577 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495	9h 47m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	PIT 16:55 → ATL 18:48DL 1353	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656	10h 41m	100%	75%
United Details →	PIT 16:58 → IAH 19:15UA 1563	2h 44m Houston	IAH 21:59 → SFO 00:05 +1UA 1609	10h 07m	100%	75%
United Details →	PIT 19:59 → IAD 21:18UA 3449 · flown by Republic	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 +1UA 367	8h 16m	92%	72%
United Details →	PIT 16:10 → ORD 17:01UA 3662 · flown by Republic	1h 19m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → SFO 21:18UA 2179	8h 08m	94%	70%
United Details →	PIT 17:55 → LAX 20:07UA 1349	2h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 22:30 → SFO 23:58UA 1047	9h 03m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PIT 19:20 → MSP 20:50DL 3709 · flown by SkyWest	50m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089	7h 26m	57%	46%
American Details →	PIT 17:05 → PHL 18:34AA 2312	59m Philadelphia	PHL 19:33 → SFO 22:43AA 2663	8h 38m	66%	36%
Alaska Details →	PIT 18:10 → SEA 20:30AS 412	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → SFO 23:40AS 410	8h 30m	56%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON