Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:07 pm at Pensacola); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4318 Southwest	PNS 17:15	DAL 19:09	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3394 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 16:20	DAL 18:10	21%	5%	0.6%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PNS 14:10 → MCI 16:15WN 4795	3h 10m Kansas City	MCI 19:25 → DAL 20:55WN 2540	6h 45m	99%	76%
Southwest Details →	PNS 17:15 → AUS 19:20WN 279	2h 32m Austin	AUS 21:52 → DAL 23:02WN 302	5h 47m	96%	72%
Southwest Details →	PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 2264	1h 50m Nashville	BNA 21:35 → DAL 23:36WN 533	5h 16m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 07m	96%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	PNS 17:05 → DEN 19:10WN 1514	1h 01m Denver	DEN 20:11 → DAL 23:11WN 1579	6h 06m	73%	46%
Southwest Details →	PNS 17:15 → AUS 19:20WN 279	50m Austin	AUS 20:10 → DAL 21:15WN 1255	4h 00m	53%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON