tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:31 pm at Pensacola); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via DFW, leaving 17:27, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:27 → DFW 19:37AA 5355 · flown by PSA 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 6h 29m 97% 65%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 16:20 → DAL 18:10WN 3394 3h 50m Dallas DAL 22:00 → HOU 23:15WN 63 6h 55m 98% 63%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 2264 2h 28m Nashville BNA 22:13 → HOU 00:27 +1WN 570 6h 07m 98% 52%
DeltaDetails → PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 5h 33m 95% 52%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 17:15 → AUS 19:20WN 279 1h 25m Austin AUS 20:45 → HOU 21:50WN 4192 4h 35m 79% 39%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 18:53 → DFW 21:08AA 2314 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 5h 03m 71% 48%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 17:05 → DEN 19:10WN 1514 1h 15m Denver DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026 6h 50m 64% 35%
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:34 → DFW 17:48AA 2320 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 4h 19m 47% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON