Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:59 pm at Pensacola); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:08, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	5h 49m	96%	64%
American Details →	PNS 18:53 → DFW 21:08AA 2314	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:53 → IAH 00:09 +1AA 3023	5h 16m	78%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON