tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:50 pm at Pensacola); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 18:08, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Kansas City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911 5h 50m 96% 70%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 2264 2h 30m Nashville BNA 22:15 → MCI 00:05 +1WN 614 5h 45m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → PNS 15:30 → DEN 18:05UA 1001 2h 35m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 7h 55m 94% 64%
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:47 → DCA 19:15AA 3742 · flown by Envoy 1h 44m Washington DCA 20:59 → MCI 22:49AA 4694 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 81% 63%
DeltaDetails → PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 20:37 → MCI 21:55DL 3023 5h 37m 94% 60%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 17:15 → AUS 19:20WN 279 1h 40m Austin AUS 21:00 → MCI 22:59WN 1584 5h 44m 93% 58%
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:04 → MIA 19:52AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 1h 53m Miami MIA 21:45 → MCI 23:59AA 670 6h 55m 96% 58%
AmericanDetails → PNS 17:27 → DFW 19:37AA 5355 · flown by PSA 3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 6h 56m 96% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 18:53 → DFW 21:08AA 2314 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → MCI 00:23 +1AA 1036 5h 30m 70% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON