tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:43 am at Pensacola)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 2866 at 10:40, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2866 Southwest Flight history → PNS 10:40 MDW 12:55 9% 7% 1.2% 96%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → PNS 11:55 → STL 13:45WN 4979 1h 50m St Louis STL 15:35 → MDW 16:40WN 556 4h 45m 95% 82%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 14:10 → MCI 16:15WN 4795 3h 15m Kansas City MCI 19:30 → MDW 21:07WN 2648 6h 57m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 11:05 → BNA 12:35WN 3392 1h 50m Nashville BNA 14:25 → MDW 16:09WN 1724 5h 04m 94% 77%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 2264 2h 40m Nashville BNA 22:25 → MDW 00:11 +1WN 4548 5h 51m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 5h 57m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 53m 98% 74%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 17:15 → AUS 19:20WN 279 2h 35m Austin AUS 21:55 → MDW 00:31 +1WN 376 7h 16m 96% 73%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 12:00 → HOU 13:30WN 3395 1h 50m Houston HOU 15:20 → MDW 17:47WN 2087 5h 47m 95% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON