Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 16–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4023 PNS 15:15 → ORD 18:02 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest UA 658 PNS 16:12 → ORD 18:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4023 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 15:15	ORD 18:02	16%	4%	1.1%	78%
UA 2005 United Flight history →	PNS 14:09	ORD 16:52	16%	7%	0.6%	71%
UA 658 United	PNS 16:12	ORD 18:46	21%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON