Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:44 pm at Pensacola); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, OH 5333 at 13:34, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5333 PSA	PNS 13:34	PHL 16:23	38%	14%	2.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PNS 15:15 → ORD 18:02AA 4023 · flown by Envoy	3h 04m Chicago	ORD 21:06 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 3177	8h 07m	95%	76%
American Details →	PNS 15:07 → MIA 18:01AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	1h 54m Miami	MIA 19:55 → PHL 22:53AA 3061	6h 46m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	6h 26m	96%	69%
American Details →	PNS 16:42 → CLT 19:40AA 5604 · flown by PSA	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	6h 40m	97%	68%
United Details →	PNS 14:09 → ORD 16:52UA 2005	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	6h 10m	87%	67%
Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 51m	96%	66%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	5h 09m	91%	66%
Southwest Details →	PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 2264	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 21:20 → PHL 00:25 +1WN 634	5h 05m	97%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 13:55 → DFW 16:04AA 5353 · flown by PSA	1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → PHL 22:17AA 991	7h 22m	73%	45%
American Details →	PNS 15:34 → DFW 17:48AA 2320	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	6h 23m	44%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON