tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:10 pm at Pensacola); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 14:09, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 53% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PNS 14:09 → ORD 16:52UA 2005 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → STL 21:06UA 1625 6h 57m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:07 → MIA 18:01AA 3749 · flown by Envoy 2h 53m Miami MIA 20:54 → STL 22:54AA 1594 7h 47m 100% 78%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 14:10 → MCI 16:15WN 4795 1h 45m Kansas City MCI 18:00 → STL 19:14WN 2975 5h 04m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → PNS 16:42 → CLT 19:40AA 5604 · flown by PSA 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 7h 16m 98% 72%
SouthwestDetails → PNS 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 2264 1h 45m Nashville BNA 21:30 → STL 22:50WN 682 4h 30m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 5h 45m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → PNS 13:54 → ATL 16:13DL 1640 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:06DL 2833 6h 12m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → PNS 15:15 → ORD 18:02AA 4023 · flown by Envoy 1h 34m Chicago ORD 19:36 → STL 20:55AA 2444 5h 40m 90% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PNS 18:53 → DFW 21:08AA 2314 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:02 → STL 23:54AA 1445 5h 01m 53% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON