Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:31 pm at Pasco); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29% (calm day: 16%). Best bet: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:21, 72% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest	59m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → DEN 22:40DL 1667	4h 19m	88%	72%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 19:59 → DEN 23:44DL 2851	7h 08m	100%	62%
Alaska Details →	PSC 15:53 → PDX 17:01AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 18:04 → DEN 21:40AS 1627	4h 47m	77%	56%
American Details →	PSC 15:24 → PHX 18:09AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Phoenix	PHX 19:11 → DEN 22:03AA 3255	5h 39m	77%	42%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PSC 15:24 → PHX 18:09AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	51m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DEN 21:51AA 1638	5h 27m	73%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON