tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:49 am at Pasco); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:21, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSC 17:21 → SLC 20:06DL 3728 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 6h 21m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Denver DEN 17:48 → LAX 19:24UA 1753 7h 16m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → LAX 20:29UA 1427 6h 54m 96% 70%
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m Seattle SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 7h 41m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest 3h 37m Seattle SEA 20:25 → LAX 23:15DL 2854 7h 39m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → PSC 15:24 → PHX 18:09AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Phoenix PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204 6h 43m 93% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PSC 12:32 → SEA 13:50DL 3992 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Seattle SEA 15:10 → LAX 17:51DL 2830 5h 19m 73% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON