Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:46 am at Pasco); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3728 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 17:21	SLC 20:06	13%	6%	0.3%	95%
DL 3892 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PSC 13:50	SLC 16:34	13%	5%	0.3%	93%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Pasco). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	PSC 15:53 → PDX 17:01AS 2471 · flown by Horizon	3h 08m Portland	PDX 20:09 → SLC 23:02AS 730	6h 09m	98%	70%
United Details →	PSC 12:08 → DEN 15:42UA 4721 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	7h 48m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	PSC 15:36 → SEA 16:48DL 3891 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 19:50 → SLC 22:55DL 1239	6h 19m	100%	65%
United Details →	PSC 13:35 → SFO 15:44UA 5578 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → SLC 21:36UA 1552	7h 01m	95%	64%
American Details →	PSC 15:24 → PHX 18:09AA 6220 · flown by SkyWest	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 20:18 → SLC 23:02AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	6h 38m	89%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON