Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:59 pm at Palm Springs); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 17:08, is the safest bet: 52% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 2548 American Flight history →	PSP 14:02	DFW 19:06	28%	12%	1.0%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Palm Springs). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PSP 17:08 → PHX 18:22AA 3949 · flown by Envoy	1h 59m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	5h 40m	98%	66%
United Details →	PSP 13:31 → SFO 15:12UA 1430	1h 27m San Francisco	SFO 16:39 → DFW 22:06UA 1336	6h 35m	86%	60%
United Details →	PSP 13:30 → DEN 16:43UA 1843	2h 10m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	6h 29m	95%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PSP 16:51 → PHX 18:05AA 2929	55m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633	4h 34m	54%	35%
Alaska Details →	PSP 14:10 → SEA 17:00AS 582	59m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → DFW 23:48AS 542	7h 38m	55%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON