tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:31 am at Palm Springs); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 1323 at 14:06, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1323 Alaska PSP 14:06 PDX 16:35 9% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PSP 17:15 → SLC 20:00DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373 6h 29m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PSP 14:10 → SEA 17:00AS 582 3h 25m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 7h 12m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PSP 12:23 → SLC 15:11DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 5h 55m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → PSP 11:09 → SFO 12:52UA 5660 · flown by SkyWest 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 16:51 → PDX 18:45UA 1812 7h 36m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → PSP 18:27 → SFO 20:10UA 5631 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384 6h 23m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → PSP 16:07 → SFO 17:50UA 4786 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 6h 41m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → PSP 14:37 → SFO 16:18UA 5946 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m San Francisco SFO 18:56 → PDX 20:54UA 2262 6h 17m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → PSP 13:30 → SFO 15:10UA 1430 3h 49m San Francisco SFO 18:59 → PDX 20:48UA 1227 7h 18m 98% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON