Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 14–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 1023 PVD 06:00 → ATL 08:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2314 PVD 17:24 → ATL 20:14 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1023 Delta Flight history →	PVD 06:00	ATL 08:35	14%	3%	1.0%	91%
DL 1813 Delta	PVD 08:45	ATL 11:36	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
DL 2840 Delta Flight history →	PVD 08:41	ATL 11:15	18%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 2147 Delta Flight history →	PVD 13:27	ATL 16:04	20%	4%	1.0%	88%
DL 2314 Delta Flight history →	PVD 17:24	ATL 20:14	21%	5%	1.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON