Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4869 at 07:00, 5%.

Safest bet today WN 4869 PVD 07:00 → MCO 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest B6 2876 PVD 17:38 → MCO 20:48 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 4869 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 07:00	MCO 09:45	5%	2%	0.6%	100%
B6 1076 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 06:45	MCO 09:42	12%	4%	0.8%	90%
WN 4829 Southwest	PVD 10:45	MCO 13:47	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 284 Southwest Flight history →	PVD 18:35	MCO 21:30	30%	10%	1.3%	31%
WN 342 Southwest	PVD 18:05	MCO 21:09	33%	10%	1.2%	no record
B6 2876 JetBlue Flight history →	PVD 17:38	MCO 20:48	37%	12%	3.2%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON