Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:56 am at Providence)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1224 at 14:50, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1224 Delta Flight history →	PVD 14:50	MSP 16:50	16%	6%	0.2%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PVD 10:25 → IAD 12:01UA 4609 · flown by GoJet	1h 19m Dulles	IAD 13:20 → MSP 15:11UA 3576 · flown by Republic	5h 46m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PVD 13:27 → ATL 16:04DL 2147	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → MSP 21:38DL 1280	9h 11m	98%	80%
Southwest Details →	PVD 09:25 → BWI 10:50WN 3402	2h 50m Baltimore	BWI 13:40 → MSP 15:20WN 1016	6h 55m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PVD 12:57 → DTW 15:07DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Detroit	DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842	7h 10m	97%	79%
American Details →	PVD 07:08 → ORD 08:59AA 360	2h 54m Chicago	ORD 11:53 → MSP 13:23AA 3131	7h 15m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	PVD 08:41 → ATL 11:15DL 2840	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	8h 25m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	PVD 17:00 → DTW 19:11DL 4040 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Detroit	DTW 21:02 → MSP 21:54DL 8815	5h 54m	91%	76%
United Details →	PVD 17:00 → ORD 19:03UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → MSP 23:10UA 1131	7h 10m	93%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PVD 19:59 → ORD 21:43AA 3771 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 22:36 → MSP 00:22 +1AA 4472 · flown by Republic	5h 23m	69%	61%
United Details →	PVD 17:00 → ORD 19:03UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	54m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	5h 41m	74%	60%
American Details →	PVD 17:42 → DCA 19:15AA 343	51m Washington	DCA 20:06 → MSP 21:54AA 5506 · flown by PSA	5h 12m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON