Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5183 PVD 19:30 → PHL 20:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest AA 5189 PVD 19:34 → PHL 21:05 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5183 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 19:30	PHL 20:55	26%	11%	1.4%	50%
OH 5513 PSA	PVD 16:03	PHL 17:35	26%	11%	1.5%	no record
AA 5189 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PVD 19:34	PHL 21:05	27%	11%	1.4%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON