Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 22–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OH 5612 PWM 10:56 → DCA 12:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1423 PWM 17:41 → DCA 19:43 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5612 PSA	PWM 10:56	DCA 12:57	22%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 361 American Flight history →	PWM 12:51	DCA 14:44	26%	8%	0.2%	68%
AA 2355 American Flight history →	PWM 17:18	DCA 19:10	31%	11%	0.2%	62%
AA 1423 American Flight history →	PWM 17:41	DCA 19:43	31%	10%	0.2%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON