Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 24–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 3620 PWM 15:46 → EWR 17:30 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest G7 4600 PWM 18:54 → EWR 20:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 15:46	EWR 17:30	24%	6%	1.1%	79%
UA 3655 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 20:15	EWR 21:59	26%	6%	1.1%	73%
YX 3551 Republic	PWM 15:40	EWR 17:29	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
G7 4600 GoJet	PWM 18:54	EWR 20:33	33%	16%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON