Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5799 at 06:25, 6%.

Safest bet that day DL 5799 PWM 06:25 → LGA 07:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AA 3079 PWM 16:25 → LGA 17:59 · 54% chance 15+ min late

Weather 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5799 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:25	LGA 07:54	6%	3%	2.2%	100%
YX 5811 Republic	PWM 06:31	LGA 08:13	6%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 4502 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 11:17	LGA 12:46	20%	6%	1.0%	89%
YX 4467 Republic	PWM 12:05	LGA 13:47	30%	8%	1.2%	no record
DL 5719 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 17:30	LGA 18:59	46%	15%	1.2%	62%
AA 2931 American Flight history →	PWM 13:25	LGA 15:00	48%	15%	1.3%	82%worse than usual
YX 5803 Republic	PWM 17:25	LGA 19:08	50%	14%	1.2%	no record
AA 3079 American	PWM 16:25	LGA 17:59	54%	18%	2.1%	no record
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 11:02	LGA 12:29	16%	6%	1.6%	84%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	PWM 13:12	LGA 14:44	31%	13%	2.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON