Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:27 pm at Portland); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


OH 5129 PSA	PWM 19:29	PHL 21:18	26%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 5127 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PWM 16:52	PHL 18:41	29%	9%	2.2%	85%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 17:01 → ORD 18:48UA 1828	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	7h 56m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:52 → DTW 18:54DL 1821	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	6h 24m	96%	77%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	56m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic	4h 04m	87%	73%
American Details →	PWM 18:01 → CLT 20:36AA 2352	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	6h 21m	88%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PWM 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 488	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 00m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON