Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: AS 3072 at 18:09, 33%.

Safest bet today AS 3072 RDM 18:09 → LAX 20:36 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time Riskiest UA 8165 RDM 14:47 → LAX 16:25 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Weather 38% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


AS 3072 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 18:09	LAX 20:36	33%	13%	0.6%	42%
OO 3216 SkyWest	RDM 17:25	LAX 19:42	38%	11%	0.6%	no record
UA 8165 United	RDM 14:47	LAX 16:25	44%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON