Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:22 am at Redmond); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3727 at 12:15, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3727 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDM 12:15	SLC 15:04	14%	5%	0.3%	92%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h ahead of Redmond). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDM 13:14 → DEN 16:42UA 2350	2h 41m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769	6h 42m	93%	68%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	7h 08m	94%	68%
American Details →	RDM 15:08 → PHX 17:39AA 3929 · flown by Envoy	2h 39m Phoenix	PHX 20:18 → SLC 23:02AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	98%	64%
Delta Details →	RDM 13:27 → SEA 14:50DL 3735 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	6h 39m	94%	62%
United Details →	RDM 13:49 → SFO 15:32UA 2262	3h 02m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → SLC 21:36UA 1552	6h 47m	98%	59%
Alaska Details →	RDM 17:49 → SEA 19:10AS 3124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → SLC 23:46AS 669	4h 57m	93%	49%
Alaska Details →	RDM 13:28 → SEA 14:40AS 276	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 16:47 → SLC 19:50AS 373	5h 22m	92%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	RDM 12:34 → PDX 13:35AS 3074 · flown by SkyWest	55m Portland	PDX 14:30 → SLC 17:29AS 3120 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m	71%	53%
United Details →	RDM 15:51 → SFO 17:39UA 4739 · flown by SkyWest	55m San Francisco	SFO 18:34 → SLC 21:36UA 1552	4h 45m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON