Today: AA 2985 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–41%.

Safest bet today AA 2985 RDU 06:00 → DCA 07:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5404 RDU 18:25 → DCA 19:40 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2985 American Flight history →	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:13	15%	6%	0.8%	85%
AA 5626 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 14:16	DCA 16:02	28%	14%	0.6%	72%
AA 5452 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 21:01	DCA 22:47	30%	14%	1.2%	35%
AA 4700 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 13:14	DCA 14:42	31%	7%	0.1%	59%
MQ 4180 Envoy	RDU 10:46	DCA 12:08	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 5581 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 10:45	DCA 12:13	33%	14%	0.6%	68%
MQ 4177 Envoy	RDU 15:43	DCA 16:52	35%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 5367 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 16:40	DCA 17:59	37%	13%	0.7%	43%
AA 5347 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 17:56	DCA 19:15	39%	16%	1.0%	37%
AA 5404 American flown by PSA Flight history →	RDU 18:25	DCA 19:40	41%	14%	0.9%	48%
DL 5006 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	DCA 07:19	18%	4%	1.2%	82%
DL 5198 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:47	DCA 21:20	51%	23%	8.1%	49%
DL 5310 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:42	DCA 17:07	53%	17%	2.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON