Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:23 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1407 at 18:45, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:45	DTW 20:36	16%	4%	0.1%	83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RDU 17:12 → ORD 18:42UA 630	2h 38m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	6h 42m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	RDU 15:36 → DCA 16:47DL 5310 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Washington	DCA 19:59 → DTW 21:45DL 2030	6h 09m	98%	73%
Southwest Details →	RDU 16:05 → BNA 16:40WN 3490	3h 45m Nashville	BNA 20:25 → DTW 23:08WN 4546	7h 03m	100%	72%
United Details →	RDU 19:37 → IAD 20:53UA 2642	1h 32m Dulles	IAD 22:25 → DTW 00:13 +1UA 2846	4h 36m	91%	72%
American Details →	RDU 17:59 → PHL 19:34AA 1441	2h 45m Philadelphia	PHL 22:19 → DTW 00:17 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	6h 18m	95%	72%
American Details →	RDU 16:15 → CLT 17:34AA 2402	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	6h 19m	97%	69%
American Details →	RDU 17:22 → PHL 19:01AA 2360	3h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 22:04 → DTW 23:59AA 5169 · flown by PSA	6h 37m	93%	68%
Delta Details →	RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	7h 34m	99%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	RDU 18:33 → EWR 20:15UA 1205	1h 00m Newark	EWR 21:15 → DTW 23:24UA 3412 · flown by Republic	4h 51m	61%	46%
American Details →	RDU 19:45 → PHL 21:24AA 5590 · flown by PSA	55m Philadelphia	PHL 22:19 → DTW 00:17 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	4h 32m	59%	44%
American Details →	RDU 17:56 → DCA 19:15AA 5347 · flown by PSA	1h 45m Washington	DCA 21:00 → DTW 22:44AA 5597 · flown by PSA	4h 48m	64%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON