Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2036 at 05:59, 7%.

Safest bet that day DL 2036 RDU 05:59 → LGA 07:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2221 RDU 12:36 → LGA 14:18 · 53% chance 15+ min late

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2036 Delta	RDU 05:59	LGA 07:34	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 3116 American	RDU 06:50	LGA 08:24	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 1083 American Flight history →	RDU 06:50	LGA 08:26	16%	6%	0.6%	84%
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 09:18	LGA 11:17	16%	8%	0.7%	68%
AA 4494 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 08:44	LGA 10:30	17%	7%	1.0%	89%
AA 4496 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 12:31	LGA 14:29	41%	8%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
AA 4749 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 14:29	LGA 16:33	45%	11%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
DL 2017 Delta	RDU 17:09	LGA 18:43	46%	12%	1.2%	no record
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 16:07	LGA 18:10	46%	13%	1.2%	48%
AA 4497 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 15:54	LGA 17:44	50%	13%	1.2%	61%worse than usual
AA 4560 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 20:20	LGA 22:14	50%	14%	1.2%	61%worse than usual
AA 2221 American	RDU 12:36	LGA 14:18	53%	9%	2.3%	no record
DL 4689 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 06:00	LGA 07:43	17%	9%	4.2%	83%
DL 4685 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:09	LGA 15:00	27%	21%	12.7%	73%
DL 4956 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 08:30	LGA 10:12	32%	22%	2.6%	68%
DL 5101 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 19:59	LGA 21:58	35%	20%	7.2%	65%
DL 5184 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 15:01	LGA 16:44	40%	22%	7.9%	60%
DL 4667 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:29	LGA 13:12	45%	27%	7.5%	55%
DL 5180 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:05	LGA 18:52	56%	44%	18.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON