Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:06 am at Raleigh/Durham); 5 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Today: AA 2123 at 09:36 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–29%.

Safest bet today AA 2123 RDU 09:36 → ORD 10:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 630 RDU 17:12 → ORD 18:42 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2123 American Flight history →	RDU 09:36	ORD 10:57	12%	6%	0.2%	89%
YX 4415 Republic	RDU 13:53	ORD 15:26	13%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 1448 United Flight history →	RDU 10:00	ORD 11:26	15%	4%	0.1%	87%
AA 4563 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 16:14	ORD 17:59	15%	4%	0.1%	60%
YX 3406 Republic	RDU 13:19	ORD 14:48	16%	4%	0.1%	no record
AA 4756 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 13:19	ORD 14:55	16%	4%	0.1%	81%
AA 1294 American	RDU 20:22	ORD 21:46	18%	6%	0.2%	no record
AA 4492 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 19:14	ORD 21:11	18%	5%	0.3%	58%
AA 2949 American Flight history →	RDU 15:45	ORD 17:05	19%	6%	0.2%	46%
YX 4417 Republic	RDU 16:27	ORD 18:00	21%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 5732 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 10:59	ORD 12:29	22%	7%	0.2%	86%
UA 5465 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	RDU 13:15	ORD 14:45	22%	5%	0.2%	83%
AA 3696 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	RDU 18:24	ORD 20:07	22%	4%	0.3%	57%
UA 481 United	RDU 16:56	ORD 18:22	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	RDU 17:12	ORD 18:42	29%	7%	0.2%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON