tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:07 am at Raleigh/Durham); 7 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today: YX 4752 at 19:13 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–43%.

Safest bet today YX 4752 RDU 19:13 → PHL 20:51 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2072 RDU 14:50 → PHL 16:27 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time
Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.
YX 4752 Republic RDU 19:13 PHL 20:51 26% 6% 0.6% no record
AA 3152 American RDU 13:09 PHL 14:46 31% 11% 0.3% no record
AA 5663 American flown by PSA Flight history → RDU 15:27 PHL 17:10 31% 14% 1.0% 84%worse than usual
AA 2403 American Flight history → RDU 13:05 PHL 14:34 33% 11% 0.3% 73%
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history → RDU 19:45 PHL 21:24 33% 12% 1.3% 57%
F9 4844 Frontier Flight history → RDU 22:01 PHL 23:38 33% 12% 1.4% 74%
AA 5644 American flown by PSA Flight history → RDU 15:15 PHL 16:50 33% 14% 1.1% 63%
AA 1441 American Flight history → RDU 17:58 PHL 19:34 36% 10% 0.3% 55%
AA 2360 American Flight history → RDU 17:22 PHL 19:01 37% 11% 0.4% 47%
F9 2072 Frontier Flight history → RDU 14:50 PHL 16:27 43% 15% 1.2% 69%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON