Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 701 RIC 15:05 → BWI 16:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3049 RIC 18:10 → BWI 19:10 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 16% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 701 Southwest	RIC 15:05	BWI 16:05	17%	3%	0.2%	no record
WN 3607 Southwest	RIC 18:15	BWI 19:15	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
WN 3049 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 18:10	BWI 19:10	21%	4%	0.2%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON