Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:15 pm at Richmond); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 3476 at 18:30, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3476 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:30	EWR 20:00	29%	10%	1.2%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	RIC 17:24 → ORD 18:53UA 3635 · flown by Republic	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	7h 29m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	7h 30m	96%	66%
Frontier Details →	RIC 17:47 → MCO 20:05F9 3767	2h 10m Orlando	MCO 22:15 → EWR 01:09 +1F9 2512	7h 22m	83%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	RIC 18:25 → MIA 20:55AA 2939	1h 05m Miami	MIA 22:00 → EWR 00:59 +1AA 2008	6h 34m	71%	55%
Delta Details →	RIC 17:28 → ATL 19:09DL 1214	59m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	5h 01m	74%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON