Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 24–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5760 RIC 19:56 → LGA 21:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 4503 RIC 19:30 → LGA 20:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5760 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 19:56	LGA 21:29	24%	7%	0.4%	71%
YX 5784 Republic	RIC 19:51	LGA 21:18	26%	7%	0.3%	no record
YX 5785 Republic	RIC 17:28	LGA 18:55	26%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 4673 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 18:51	LGA 20:31	28%	9%	0.3%	62%
AA 4503 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RIC 19:30	LGA 20:59	28%	8%	0.4%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON