Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 30–37% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 3579 RIC 16:10 → MCO 18:15 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time Riskiest F9 3767 RIC 17:47 → MCO 20:05 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 3579 Southwest Flight history →	RIC 16:10	MCO 18:15	30%	6%	0.3%	38%
B6 969 JetBlue Flight history →	RIC 16:52	MCO 19:06	37%	15%	0.8%	72%
F9 3767 Frontier Flight history →	RIC 17:47	MCO 20:05	37%	19%	1.3%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON