tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:20 am at Richmond); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 2939 at 18:25, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2939 American Flight history → RIC 18:25 MIA 20:55 25% 6% 0.3% 54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → RIC 12:32 → DTW 14:23DL 3166 1h 36m Detroit DTW 15:59 → MIA 19:18DL 866 6h 46m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → RIC 13:00 → ORD 14:26UA 4547 · flown by GoJet 3h 39m Chicago ORD 18:05 → MIA 22:27UA 2180 9h 27m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → RIC 12:00 → ORD 13:28AA 4500 · flown by Republic 3h 58m Chicago ORD 17:26 → MIA 21:35AA 2323 9h 35m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → RIC 14:15 → MSP 16:16DL 5063 · flown by Endeavor 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 9h 20m 84% 71%
DeltaDetails → RIC 13:03 → ATL 14:52DL 2650 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 17:09 → MIA 19:25DL 1631 6h 22m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → RIC 15:00 → PHL 16:20AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 3h 35m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → MIA 23:09AA 1181 8h 09m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → RIC 11:41 → JFK 13:09DL 5316 · flown by Endeavor 2h 01m New York JFK 15:10 → MIA 18:53DL 2500 7h 12m 93% 68%
SouthwestDetails → RIC 18:10 → BWI 19:10WN 3049 1h 20m Baltimore BWI 20:30 → MIA 23:20WN 235 5h 10m 86% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → RIC 15:10 → DFW 17:41AA 1915 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:40 → MIA 22:37AA 2050 7h 27m 74% 49%
AmericanDetails → RIC 17:34 → PHL 18:54AA 5895 · flown by Piedmont 49m Philadelphia PHL 19:43 → MIA 22:33AA 2132 4h 59m 57% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON